[CJES]: near term buy

CJES(C+J Energy Services) is a highly leveraged fracking driller.  It could very well BK before the unfolding crisis is over but it is still too early in peak credit Ponzi for it to BK yet.  If it does go under it will be because $20 mn of cash is backstopping $345 mn of debt used to ramp up its now unprofitable fracking operations. 


Right now emotions are running high due to the rapid oil price decline that has occurred.  The only defense we have against being blinded by these emotions is the price chart and the application of EW models!  And so below is the one for CJES which, if not already bottomed, is very near one.  Days or maybe a couple weeks into early Jan.  This could poke around on the bottom, double bottom, etc. before the actual turn but it is due for a substantial bounce in terms of percentage.  I think it will turn up soon because we now see that 5 classic EW have transpired in the chart.

The salient features are all there:

• Wave 1 had the gap in the 3rd wave position and so did wave 5.
• 1-3 is parallel to 2-4.
• Wave 2 was a vee, wave 4 was a Horizontal Triangle (H.T.), perfectly formed.
• Wave 5 is now very, very close in size to wave 1. The pink vertical "I beam" is wave 5's height bar cut and pasted next to wave 1's..
• We see a gap in wave 5 that I have to count as 3 of 5, then a bounce and then more downside.
• From 13 down to $12 COULD be a falling wedge 3rd of 5 of  5.  So maybe it goes down to perhaps $11.50, bounce s a little and then maybe as low as even $10.50 before it is really done- I tend to be a bit early in these counts.  But this will be a lot higher come mid January than it is today.

Besides that, we are now getting the "important aspect of this industry is dead" articles.  In the one I linked right there, OPEC is supposedly dead now.  Yawn.  I don't think so.  I think that people let temporary price swings (volatility) play on their herding instinct too much.  I think this causes them to project current trends endlessly into the future.  I'm not saying that oil can't go down more but I am seeing a number of commodities charts (including COPX) whose wave counts suggest a bottom is near (right along with a peak in King Dollar).

When oil climbs back up, CJES will climb back up even faster due to its inherent debt:cash leverage.  I think it will a-b-c into the @20-$22 range within 6-8 weeks.  I can't say more than that until I see how its chart plays out but if you like the oil patch then this chart is telling me that it is time or very nearly time to flip long.  I say "flip" because I previously dissed the oil patch based on nothing more than its wave count.  DUG was 43.53 then and today it is 60.61.  I would dump it and buy DIG at or near today's price of 48.63.

Of course, as oil bounces, so will gold and so will gold miners.  When not if.

Note to S.C.E.: I only quickly looked at CJES "fundamental" data on Yahoo.  I never heard of the company before I read about it in brief passing.  The reason I'm posting about it here is because I want to prove a point: the so called fundamentals are unknown and unknowable.  Everything you need to know about the future direction of an issue is encoded into the price chart.  Of course, you have to know how to read it and that takes a knowledge of EW and lots and lots of practice (AKA making mistakes...).

In any case, they loved CJES at $35 and now they hate it at $12.