TVIX Update

Here is the prior TVIX update which allowed for one last fall to the $2.70 range.  The shares meandered a bit over the past couple days but I think tomorrow we see a gap down into 3 of 4 (given that DJIA futures are up 70 points right now) and then a vee 4th and the a final thrust down before finding the bottom of what I still believe to be wave 2.

I still think it is telling that TVIX hasn't made a lower low even though the DJIA and the $COMPX and the S+P 500 ($SPX.X) have all made higher highs.  Those kinds of breaks have not been afforded to TVIX since I have been watching it and it tells me that the herd is beginning to buy insurance again as a standard policy instead of relying on the Bernanke Put (which ended in October).  Keep in mind that the NYSE composite has not made higher highs and in fact just put in 5 small waves down.  So I think it will move up a bit tomorrow to a lower low and create a nice pair of owl ears (declining double top) and the index will then drop into freefall because, unlike the other indices, it will be entering a 3rd wave down.

One hint that the peak is in, believe it or not, is that the black wave 1 did not stop at the gap fill.  It fell right past that support thus telling me that the pullback was not for the reason of filling the gap; there was another agenda at play.

Either we are very near a major major reversal or I will start lending more weight that AAPL can be taking the $150 path mentioned in this post.

Keep in mind that even if stocks do reverse downward it might just be an a-b-c retracement which could lead to higher highs.  Once we get past the 38.2% fib, the potential for a higher high bounce of the broader markets diminishes rapidly and the likelihood that we are entering the big 12-18 month long crash goes up dramatically.

So I will be on the sidelines with TVIX for the AM but will be looking for the wave count to play out so that I can try another entry point.  So now I am looking for entry points into two things and two things only: TVIX and JNUG.