So I have started looking around for different wave counts from credible Elliotticians. I came across some charts from Sid over at elliottwavepredictions.com I don't use his service but his free stuff has looked very good each time I reviewed it. So here are a couple charts along those lines to consider. The first is a miner, ASA. Below is the chart from that link. As you can see, Sid models ASA to have about 50 cents (~5%) more downside before finding a very significant bottom.
Here's a link to Sid's silver chart which was dated Aug 14th. The associated chart is shown below. The green vertical lines are the bottoming time window and his target price for silver was $15.75. Today spot silver hit $15.33, down another whopping 4.43%. It it stays down there, it will gap the miners down again hard. This simply cannot go on much longer and the beating has become so sudden and so severe that it does not feel like just an A wave. The further it goes down, the more convinced that a long term bottom is in and that this is likely going to be an expanding wedge. I created a similar "wildcard model" back in this post. While the price has gone lower, the concept of catching an expanding wedge already crossed my mind and that was well before the huge volume spike and rapid percentage collapse that we have been seeing of late.
Captain,
ReplyDeleteI follow you on JNUG for a long time and I wonder whether this is just the end of wave A or it is actually the end of wave C.
You say "Multiple highly followed EWers", who are they?
I know only Avi Gilbert, sometimes he got it right, sometimes he got it wrong. Of course, no one can be right all the time.
Right now, I more agree with you that this is actually the end of wave C. But everything is possible and I cannot rule out the possibility that this is just the end of wave A.
Anyway, for either counts, I think we will have a strong rally for JNUG from here. I think 3.48 is your very good buy. Congratulations!
So I would like to know the other highly followed Ewers (who you know) to read their analysis and decide for myself whether I should keep or sell JNUG after the next strong rally.
Thanks Captain!
Hi hhl88b,
ReplyDeleteIt seems that you and I think alike in this matter: find the experts out there who have a good track record, never assume they will be perfect and don't discount their viewpoints simply because they didn't achieve perfection. Weigh their counsel based on track record and never forget the concept of "the hot hand" because waves apply to the individual as well as to entire markets.
Avi and the guys at EWI are the top two metals counters that I know of. Anthony Caldero is worth following. I have also been following Sid over at elliottwavepredictions.com. There is also DanEric's blog as well as others I happen across.
The key here is to do your own count FIRST!!! and then use the others as sanity checks against your views. Those who complain about other wave counts have zero clue about the probabilistic nature of wave counting which stems from our limited ability to observe all of the related waves in real time and at a high enough level.
These guys come in thinking because they ponied up a measly $100 per month that the wave counter is going to be God-like. It's just childish. The proper way, as I said before, is to understand the thing for oneself. Only then can intelligent "bail out triggers" be set. Those who gamble without the use of stops must think themselves Gods because only God can know for sure what will happen in the future.