Check out the pathetic 38.2% fib bounce for Mickey Dee. [MCD]

MCD shares took a big hit in September, but unlike the broader markets, the bounce did not create a new high.  Not even close.  As a matter of fact, it is just now ready to kiss the 38.2% fib.  MCD did not fall on its own and it did not rise on its own.  But it is out of phase with the broader markets by 1 wave and that is creating a fantastic put buying opportunity IMO.  Mickey D entered a bear market back in May!

While the broader markets are just finished their 5th wave and can still be viewed as strong (although that will change soon enough).  But the two alternate counts that I provide in the chart below can only be labeled "bad" and "worse".  The bad count is what I am using for the primary count since it is more conservative than the "worse" count.  The bad count saw black 1, 2 , 3, and then an expanded flat into black 4 and then down again into black 5.  Those 5 black waves down created big red 1.  The the bounce since then was red 2.  So in this model the next wave down is 1 of red 3.  That's bad enough.

The worse count is the same except that it does not use the expanded flat.  In that model, waves black 1-2 and 3 are the same but wave is shown in green.  Then wave green 5 down creates big wave 1 down (green 5/1 in that alternate model).  3 waves up forms green 2 (which filled the gap and bounced to the 50% fib even though this is not marked on the chart below).  The next set of waves down was then wave 1 of 3 with the bounce since mid October being 2 of 3.  That's what makes this a "worse" model for MCD longs: we are already well into wave 3 and just about to possibly play out 3 of 3.  Well, that will likely come with a long-crushing gap.   In this scenario, put holders will get very rich very fast.

In any case,  I see the shares pushing up perhaps another 50 cents to ~$95 before turning south sharply and gapping down during its 3rd wave breakdown.

This MCD chart strongly suggests that the broader markets are very near their tops, perhaps the same 1/2 % that MCD needs in order to make the 38.2 fib within the tiny red circle above.  Again, MCD will not likely enter wave 3 down and begin plummeting on its own.  It will have company.  It has been a Wall St darling and a market bellwether for a long, long time.  When people see panic selling happening in MCD shares it will be infectious.  People will begin to realize two things that I have been saying all along:

• Know outsider really knows what the fundamentals really are and the insiders are not sharing that info.
• All shares in a company have essentially zero intrinsic value because there is zero unalienable right to demand something in exchange for them.  Someone might willingly trade something of value to you for them but that's because a sucker is born every day.   The stock market is an economic cross between the game of hot potato (using a live hand grenade of course) and musical chairs.  Whoever holds the "potato" when the music stops blows up in his tracks.

I'm normally not much of a fan of short term options but if someone is going to sell me the March $70s for 20 cents or less then I'm going to have to pick up a nice block of contracts.  As little as $1000 goes a long way in something so leveraged as this.  They priced those options as if MCD had bounced like everyone else even though it's little bounce is only to the 38.2.  Also, look how the gap in the 3rd wave down has already been filled, thus removing that temptation to move the chart higher to the 50 fib or to the 61.8 fib.

This is as about a perfect options play setup as you can ask for.  If you want a bit more safety in terms of time value, check out the Jan 2016 $70 puts which are now $1.10 ask and $1.07 last.  Remember: stair steps up, elevator down.