Wednesday, October 22, 2014

[INTC] chart suggests collapse imminent. Must read.

Here is a link to the post of my most recent Intel high level chart and topping call.  I was about 70cents too early in that call but the high level model (scroll down to bottom of that post) seems to be pretty good so far.
 
In this subsequent post I modeled a potential a-b-c decline that would possibly move another large wave higher.  The red a? b? c? in that post were not followed through to the upside and in fact another large stroke lower followed.

Well if those were possibly a-b-c and we got another stroke down then I guess I have to count them as 1-2-3 instead followed by 4 and then 5.  So the red count is crossed out and the blue count takes over.  If this turns out to be the case then black 1 is already in the books and the past 5 trading days which were a rally is most likely a retracement into black 2.

This updated blue count looks correct to me.  We have the 4th wave triangle (blue 4), we have 1-3 being parallel to 2-4.  We have a gap in 3 of 3 as well as 3 of 5.  We have what looks like 5 waves up (or nearly so - it could still need to trace out the tiny 5th of 5 of C) in C of 2 which even has a tiny 4th wave triangle in the $32.15 region.  The a-b-c move up into what I have labeled as black 2 is nearly at the level of the prior 4th (blue 4).

















Below left is a close up of the whole counter trend rally so far.  As you can see from this, the rally also extended exactly back up to the 50% fib.  Below right is a close up of just 5 of C of the counter trend rally.  There is a small double top at the 5th wave which could turn into a big reversal.  The next wave down for Intel should be a 3rd wave down and that will mos def get the market's attention!  Keep in mind that the recent sell off was from $35.50 down to $29.65.  That is about 25% within about 6 weeks.  I hope that goes to show people just how fake and ethereal "market cap" is.  The whole concept of a market capitalization based on margin debt is a total joke, useful mainly for marketing essentially worthless paper assets to Mark and Patsy.

















If ever there were a time to take a gamble on 3 month expiration near the money puts, now is that time.  Of course, like any gamble there are odds and not certainties.  But in terms of the odds, this is a good bet that will pay asymmetrical gains if it wins.

May the odds be ever in your favor, fellow gambler.

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