Where are we with peak credit - update 2 with higher resolution.

In this post and prior ones back linked by it I posted models of the credit wave count.  Those were based on badly lagging quarterly data.  Below is a chart that is based on weekly credit data.  As you can see, it is simply a more updated and more detailed version of the TOTALSL chart even though it targets a slightly different credit sector.  All these charts will have the same shape so it doesn't matter which we use for the model.

This chart looks very nearly complete in terms of the EW count.  Wave 1 was about 2 bars high and now 5 is just shy of 2 bars high. 

Below is a zoom in of just blue 5.  I believe we are very near the 5th of 5th of 5th of 5th here.  The 3rd wave was already extended so I don't look for a repeat in wave red 5.

Of course nobody knows what will happen in the future but my experience tells me that EW can really skew the odds in your favor.  A break below red 4 is first confirmation that "it's on".  I expect the holiday shopping season to be underwhelming to say the least.