DJIA update: tomorrow will either break down or begin work on final small 5th of 5th of 5th.

In my most recent DJIA update I indicated that Wed's trading session would be very important to knowing the final direction.  Well, it provided a negative bias for the markets without committing itself.  So Thurs trading will likely give us a better view.   Below is the DJIA count as I see it right now.

To recap, at far left was a rising contracting wedge (which I loosely refer to as ending diagonal although it might not meet all the real criteria of the rare EW ending diagonal).  I count that as 3 since that chart formation has been the 3rd wave many times of late.  Then it fell 3 waves into the first wave of a horizontal triangle which is what we would expect for a 4th wave.  Horizontal triangles are supposed to always be the penultimate wave.  Then we got 5 rail bumps into a slightly expanding wedge which could in fact be the peak of the entire bull market that began Feb 2009.

Then it gets a little iffy to count 5 waves down into [1].  Not only is the wave count not super clear but more importantly it is a falling wedge.  That, according to what has been the pattern of late, should be a 3rd or a C.  Since this observation concerning wedges is not a EW rule but rather a personal observation, I will overlook it for now and assume it is a 5 wave count down into [1].   Then a vee bounce to a lower high into what I labeled [2].   The next wave down looks like an expanding wedge whose 5th wave ended mid channel (which is common).  The to close today out there was a move back up to the prior 4th (red 4) which I am calling black 2.  So if this is correct, we should see selling from the opening tomorrow and it should get stronger into the day because it would be a 3rd of 3rd.  I would even hope to see some gaps in the chart.  

If it goes to a higher high than Wed's close then this model is likely bust and the bust would be confirmed it it hit a new high.  Either way we should get a good line on the next direction very soon now.  This sideways chop cannot continue much longer IMO; there is just too much going on and too much at stake.  A little profit taking could easily turn into a massive wave of selling given how thinly traded these markets are.  I wonder how many retirees with all their money in the Ponzi market have any clue about the low volume that is happening right now.  One in 1000?  Less?  When the selling begins it will not be pretty folks.  Thinly traded issues have a bad habit of cliff diving when the bear is on.