$COMPX update: the 2009 bull market is likely over.

Here is the top level model I am working from for the $COMPX. 

Today's AM gap up resulted in a slight throwover of the top rail as shown below.  So now the question is how to interpret it. It cannot be a positive thing that a gap up turned quickly into strong selling.  As mentioned many times in these pages, an AM reversal of a gap (whether up or down) is the sign of a significant trend reversal.

I believe that, having followed the blue path laid out in my previous post on $COMPX, it is most likely the end of the 2009 rally.  Below is the real time chart update.  The 5th wave of the internal rising wedge threw over the top rail and then found strong resistance at the top rail of the 2009 bull market trend line.    If my count is correct, the market should now come under increasing selling pressure as the $COMPX falls through the green, blue and finally red circles shown in the model below.

Zooming in further you can see a completed count on that 5th wave.  A move below 4320 is going to cause even more selling pressure and perhaps even all out panic as everyone tries to make sure they are not left holding an empty stock market Ponzi bag: