Wednesday, September 3, 2014

AAPL selloff was very ugly from a technical perspective.

Many times when a stock is ready to reverse, it begins the roll over dance.  But with AAPL, the investors just cut and ran today.  Imagine the mighty AAPL losing more than 4% at the close while the broader indices were basically flat.  APPL shares are considered a leadership stock and tech is a leadership sector.  Someone is trying to use the hacking news to get out of this thing while the getting is good and the wave picture it left us with is not pretty.  The fact that I clearly called for a top to be imminent in these shares just yesterday is a bad, bad sign for longs because it means that the chart was signaling end of rally before this dramatic sell off began. So it really cannot be attributed to the recent hacking news.  This sold off because the herd feels like turning south.  And so it will be southward ho!

There are two likely counts right now: bad and worse.  The wave count down to black 1 seems very clear.  you have alternation between 2 and 4, wave 3 was a gapatious doozy, 4 was a triangle.  What's not to like from an EW perspective?  That is conviction selling right there folks, no fooling around. 

From here, the bad count is in red.  It suggests that today was 1 down and then A of 2 and B of 2 back up.  If the shares bounced to the "OR 2" point then it would be the 50% fib.

Conversely, 2 could already be in and 1 of 3 could also be done.  In that event I would look for a small move up tomorrow and then within minutes of the open we should see massive selling, as bad as 3 of 1 today if not worse.  More importantly, the broader indices should begin to move in sympathy with the leader.


We are now past the holiday weekend and are moving into the teeth of the scary weeks of September.  Will buy the dip continue to work or will anyone who buys be a dip?  Time will tell but I think anyone hoping for more out of this Ponzi stock market pump without at least a massive correction first is hoping for too much.

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