More twitter modeling.

First, understand that I don't care about TWTR.  I do care about the class of stocks known as social media.  Not because I would ever consider anything but a bounce trade on them but rather because they are marginal in the big picture since the real economy (you know, the one where the fed doesn't pump tons of free money into it each month... remember that from way back when?) doesn't need these stocks.  Thus, they will collapse in locked step with the collapse of free money (AKA liquidity).  So they are canaries in the coal mine for me.

I already posted at the high level about TWTR this weekend here.  Today I just want to add to the prior posts to make the case for a gap down at the open on Monday.  If TWTR is gapping down, so will all social media stocks and probably the rest of the markets as well.

First off, here is the post where I provided clear buy indications for this stock right as it was finished tracing out its failed fifth wave in early May.   The bottom shown lower left is --3--, then a 3 wave bounce into --4-- , then the failed --5--th.

After that we should get an [a]-[b]-[c] recovery which did occur with a nicely readable EW count.  --5-- below is actually also big 1 down which means the top right is the big 2nd vee wave retracement.  That means that the action since then has been 1 of 3 (or 1 of C) down and then the little bounce has been 2 of 3 (or 2 of C).




This is a zoom in on just wave 2.  I count a 5-3-5 wave as having completed and thus a high likelihood that 2 is done.  Note how it broke the 23.6 fib, then back tested it from above and then peaked at the 38.2% fib.  Short this thing at the open, put your stops in at 38.85 and then go about your business while your profits pile up on the collapse of this worthless POS.  If I'm wrong you risk 50 cents which is less than 2%.