Metals and miners update

In my previous metals and miners update I put in a chart of JNUG that modeled a bit higher of a push before a pullback and then off to to races.  Today JNUG hit 20.20 which is just a bit above where I thought it should begin to pull back.  I would not buy into the exponential peak.  I'd rather miss short term gains than take short term losses.  I want to see a pullback to between $16.83 (the 38.2) and 16.00 (the 61.8 fib).  Of course, once it begins to pull back, how do we know it won't just keep going down?

Of course, that cannot be known but I think it helps with confidence in a trade to look at multiple related charts.  First off, look at USLV.  While miners have already begun to move, the metals are just inching along. That will change soon.  The miners are the most volatile group and they tend to move 1-2 weeks before the metals.  You might recall this post back in Feb where I warned to be on the look out for an ending diagonal in metals.  The chart was not drawn to scale of course.  The goal was to warn about the possibility of a 5th wave down that would throw under the lower rail before bouncing back up through lower and upper rails.  Well, this has actually happened now in USLV.  I caution that ending diagonals have been 3rd wave of late so this is not likely "the" bottom, but it should be a pretty substantial bounce nonetheless.  The prior 4th wave would be about $100 which is about where the diagonal started so that will be my initial target which I will update based on the waves as they play out.  This will take 2-3 months to play out IMO, perhaps more.  Be patient and you will get paid.  This is like an airplane taking off.  It has to gather some speed before rotating the nose up and gaining altitude, especially after such a long down trend.

Your sell trigger on this is a break back below the upper rail.  I see one more small wave up to finish 5 and then an a-b-c, perhaps to back test the down sloping blue line from above.  If (when IMO) that test holds, the next move up will be a 3rd wave which will likely reach the $45 range.  This is slow and steady, no big panics, but still far better in terms of potential % gain than you will ever get from a money manager with a "buy and hold" mentality.

Second, look at TRX.  I see a high potential for an inclining double bottom to form here.  So an easy play on this one is to buy any pullback and then set your stops below the green support line.

Zooming in you can see more details on why I am bullish here.  From January until March of this year we saw 5 clear waves up into black 1.  Then, unsure about whether or not the M+M were turning up, we got an ending diagonal back down into wave 2.  That ending diagonal had a nasty throw under before breaking back up above both rails.  That is a break out folks.  That double bottom was hard earned by the longs and this little move so far is certainly not all of the reward that will be received for those who recognize that.  I see this at $4+ before the end of August.