Fade solar

In the prior post on Sunpower (and all PV solar by proxy) I gave a blue gauge as to how much higher it should go and then provided a red topping window.

Since then, the chart moved almost exactly to the top of the stick and then reversed.  The first move down then found a bottom into what I labeled red 1.  Now it has vee bounce, as is often the case for 2nd waves on a loved stock, into red 2. 

The play is simple: short this thing.  It has been rounding off for several months now and so there is not much left to wait.  Besides, my model says wave 2 is now complete and so the next wave should be a big 3rd wave down to break below the lower channel.  Just doing that is a ~12-13% payday.

A move above $36 invalidates this model but I think the odds of that are low

Here is just the final bit of the chart.  Look how it has been respecting the 38.2, 50 and 61.8% fib levels during its 2nd wave retracement.  There is some order to this Chaos.  It could either double top out here or have one more wave up such that 5 of C of 2 is equal in length to 1 of C of 2.   Notice how what I labeled blue C could be counted as an ending diagonal.  EDs have been 3rd waves of late.  This is not a hard and fast rule but if it goes any higher than 34.36 you might want to cover your short and let the few additional percent play out if that is what the market is going to do.

But again, 36 or higher and this model is bust.