Calling a near term top on USO

This link goes to a post about Charles Nenner's call on USO.  I provided it because it is the only real post I have done on USO with any chart provided before.  But today the action looks very peaky in USO and so, dear gamblers, if I gave free stock advice (which I do not) then I would recommend letting the ending diagonal finish up to about $37.70 and then shorting it starting at about $37.35.  This one one is the bunny slopes of gambling, not the black diamond like JNUG which can swing 10+% in a day.  The reason I mention JNUG here is that it did almost this exact pattern 4 month pattern in just 1.3 trading days.  See for yourself on the 5 minute chart (top, right) here.

This short is for anyone who wants a very safe 10% over the next month.  By "safe" I do not mean it is 100% guaranteed to pay out.  There are no such guarantees in life and only a moron would even request such a thing.  By "safe" I simply mean you will know very quickly if the model is wrong and thus you will lose very little if you set your stops correctly. 

I do have to say, this is a very nice find because it is so textbook Elliott.  In the chart above, look how that blue B wave came nearly to the top of the left hand 5th wave but still fell short.  That baby is out of go juice, at least for now.  Lower prices will bring the buyers but right now this is a really easy bet for anyone.  This is the kind of bet you don't mind throwing $100k at without blinking.  It moves nice and slow but not too slow to make money on.  What normal "investor" (gambler) wouldn't be happy with a great chance to pull in 10% over the next 3-4 weeks with such little downside risk?

Now, if you don't know how to short, no problem.  Use the inverse OSO ETF (ticker: DNO).  It is more thinly traded and thus does not chart as well as USO so I would look at USO for when to buy DNO.  Once you know the buy point, the stop point on DNO should be easily figureable based on the wave model I provided for USO.  Is 10% (minimum, could be much more given the larger chart) gain in 3-4 weeks just too snailish for you?  Go with ticker SCO for double the pleasure, double the profits.  It's the 2x ultrashort crude ETF.

One trading hint:  While the ending diagonal is certainly the end of a wave, it might only be the end of 3 of C. I have noted that ending diagonals have not often been end of 5ths lately but rather end of 3s.  So the chart might break the lower rail of the diagonal and then come right back up through.  In order to not get screwed of of even 1 penny, if the wave breaks below the triangle and then does not pick up speed but instead only puts in 3 waves down, just move your stop down to just below your buy point.  If you then get taken out, you know the next wave must be the last one and so simply count 5 waves from where it began to come back up and then re-short it.  Again, use stops above where you reshorted (just a few cents above).