Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Fuel cell makers getting the Ponzi pump of late, as predicted by my wave model.

I first posted on Ballard Power (BLDP) back in May 2013.  The shares had recently been at 85 cents.  I indicated that it was a buy at that time.   Later on, in this post when the shares were trading at $1.42, I indicated that a pull back was nearly complete and to expect a rapid move up.  Most recently, in this post I indicated that the Ponzi pump was in the exponential, unsustainable stage and so it was time to look for the door.  The shares were at $5.27.  Shortly after, they spiked all the way to $8.40 for a few minutes and then collapsed back to their current price of 5.07which is about the level of the prior 4th wave (4 of 3 according to my revised model below).  While I certainly got the direction modeled correctly, I now question whether the this was a 5th wave or a 3rd of 5th.  It matters greatly toward the future price of these shares.

If it was a 5th wave as originally modeled, then the prior 4th will be all the way back down to $1.20.  If you see that then I would call the shares a strong buy again because it could be a set up for the next move well above $9.  If it was a 3rd wave then wave 1 up has not completed yet.  Only 4 of 5 is complete.  5 of 5 would then be a failed 5th as shown below.  Then a pullback to $4.00 again before considering the next move up (or whether this is just a mania that will close below where it started).

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