Sunday, February 23, 2014

TRX Update: short term reversal very possible.

In this post I saw the bottom for TRX being put in.  Since then I've watched the shares climb like wild fire.  But my broader view is that metals and miners are most likely in the 4th wave of an ending diagonal which means 1 more wave down to a lower low, probably on high volume, probably with a throw under of all the metals and miners charts.  If it plays out like that it will be a major buy signal, especially for the junior miners.  If significant global conflict breaks out, the metals and miners will likely be viewed as safe havens given the beatings they have received over the past several years.

So, while I think miners are close to the bottom, a hand grenade will still kill you if its just close when it goes off.  I suspect that the C wave is close to playing out.  It is already about 130% of the A wave.  Also the last a-b-c dip went into the region of the prior wave which is never a good sign.

We should know very soon.  I suspect we will see a small pop on Monday to around $2.60 and then have a very tough time staying above the green down sloping resistance line.  The wave formation we were left with at the end of last week could also just be a declining double top that collapses on Monday.  Either way, be aware of this short term bearish potential because, while it will indeed be short term, it could also be a huge loss in terms of percentage.  If it happens, however, all it will do is make the next moves up that much sweeter because the next move down should in fact be the 5th of a 5th.



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