This should be fun: EW model as applied to Economati Blog views. [PVIEW]

Backlink.

While I often refer to "herding" as the basis for Elliott wave theory, the real underpinning goes far deeper.  Herding is more of a symptom of the underlying cause rather than the base reason.   If you look closely at the front page of Prechter's book on the subject, you won't find a herd of Wildebeests.  What you do see is a spiraling ticker tape whose shape is of the Nautilus shell.

In short, the EW principle recognizes that the universe is based on factals: objects of self-similar shape at varying degrees.  Galaxies are made up of solar systems that spiral around black holes.  Solar systems are in turn made up of planets that spiral about a sun.  Moons spiral about planets and so on.  Down at the very low level, electrons spiral around nuclei.  There is some basic principle which is universally respected that makes these fractals and the natural numbers associated with them (see Da Vinci's Golden Ratio) occur with some regularity if one only has eyes to see it.  Despite this semblance of predictability, a level of chaos exists in that minor changes at microscopic levels can affect all the other layers above in significant ways.  In other words, the so called Butterfly Effect.  Because of the Butterfly Effect, one cannot do the same thing over and over and over again and expect success every time.   In fact, modern physics supports the so called Heisenberg Principle whereby the very observation of an activity leads to uncertainty about it.

In other words, EW principle tries to model the progress of nature.  While having had some success in applying this to stock market price movements, I'm always testing the validity of the principle in a broader sense.  And so, below is my EW model for page views of this blog.  After a clear 1st wave up followed by an a-b-c back down into 2 we now have 1-2-3-4-5 into 3.

note how the 5 waves up were made up of subwaves, each with 3 steps.  The result is not a normal motive wave but rather an expanding triangle.  The 5th wave of this triangle could go higher and do a throw over because none of the waves of the triangle is extended yet and often we find of of the waves does get extended.  We could also find that this turns out to be 1 of 3, not 5 of 3.  But nothing goes straight up or straight down so I expect a pullback in readership to the prior 4th as modeled down to 4 below.  After that should come 5 more waves up if indeed my readership is in a bull market and such activity would serve as initial confirmation of same.

My readership is likely to grow or shrink over time (not necessarily in real time) based on the correctness of my chart models.  After all, my blog is free, my blog has no annoying ads and my models have been at least fair to middling in terms of correctness.  The herd can scarcely keep itself from enjoying a something for nothing arrangement.

I'll be watching the waves to see how correct the modeling works on something that has nothing to do with stocks.  Should be a good learning exercise either way.