Massive volatility in what should trade like a utilty. [SPWR]

Back in this January post I suggested that it was time to take Ponzi Profits on Sunpower (SPWR).  I used that as a proxy for the entire sector.  In fact, I said it was looking "very peaky".  While the shares are up $2 since that post, it does not change my view at all.  In fact, the recent move provides what I think is an even better wave count.  The tiny ending diagonal may or may not occur (blue lines).  The chart could just as easily break down within the next1-3 days trading days.  The point is that these shares are currently over-loved according to my model and thus the prudent gambler will GTFO right now with fat profits since my original bottom call back in the 44-45 range.

Once out, be careful about jumping back in!  The retracement could be as little as to the prior 4th.  But if the broader markets begin to collapse then so will SPWR shares.  Look for an a-b-c count back down to the prior 4th and look for support there.  If you see it, buy back in BUT USE STOPS in case it decides to go much lower.  There are some wave counts that take this back down to $16 and even $9!  They are not the typical path one would expect but the herd reserves the right to use them in unusual circumstances.  And I believe that circumstances are about to get very, very unusual given all the world turmoil.  The world is full of signs that some kind of massive contagion breakdown could be near.  If the Soviets, for example, try to stop Ukraine from its coup, will the US get involved?  Obama has been called a coward by too many people of late and so he might just have to prove how long his, um, fierce reputation is.

I don't know what it will be but the charts tell me that SOMETHING will give them the excuse they need in order to make the retracements that they appear to want.

First Solar looks the same -scary- to me.  That declining double top with the right edge that falls off rapidly with gaps is a SELL SELL SELL signal if every I modeled one.  It's best case retracement is likely down to around $35 and at the extreme I would see a pullback to the $20 range as being not a bad bet.  The odds of that lower move will be adjusted based on the shape of the chart going into the $35 range.

Don't fall in love with a stock because few of them pay dividends and the rest of them (those that do not pay dividends) have an intrinsic value of zero.