Sunday, February 16, 2014

Late to the metals party and don't want to chase the early movers?? Buy COPX!

In this post I stated that my model indicated that COPX breakout was imminent.  The breakout took longer than anticipated because the ending diagonal I saw there turned out to be the end of a 3rd wave where the 1st wave was quite short.  That meant they could run the chart all the way back down the the start of the ending diagonal without violating the EW rules for a motive wave.  After that the shares punched up to a higher high.  That last high up was really the 5th wave (red 1).  That means a-b-c down into red 2 which, again, the market tried to sell off as much as possible without breaking the EW uptrend which is still valid.


Hear me now and believe me later: the copper miners are very, very likely ready to pick up speed, break out, and make up for lost time.  While gold miners and silver miner were racking up huge percentage gains, copper miners were languishing.  Of course copper will never move like the precious metals miners will but not everyone likes fast action.  Some prefer less volatility, especially when playing with large sum of money.  If someone had 100k to drop into an ETF that they did not want to have to watch every day, COPX might be the ticket.  When that red oblong breaks out as it probably will, it will be the signal for massive buying. If it cannot break out of that quickly, preferably with a gap, then I would hold off large purchases. 

It is still possible that this is just the C wave of a large a-b-c and that it will break down into a 5th wave down after the markets peak (just like I modeled for Intel in this post), but C waves can be good movers so why not make some pocket change in the mean time?

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