Friday, April 3, 2020

Recent Trump press conference provides useful insight.

When there is plenty, it's easy to be magnanimous, easy to share, easy to get along.  But when humans get worried about their own individual futures not being so great (or just downright fucked), we humans can get pretty nasty pretty quickly.  Don't blame a fellow meat sack for behaving as described because he/she is simply behaving in line with human nature.

We all laugh at Trump for standing up there talking about his own perfection on a daily basis: perfect phone calls, perfect answers, whatever.  But Obama was no better, just a better liar. Obama  could tell you that he thought you were the lowest scumbag on Earth and that he was going to bend you over a log first chance he got.  But when Obama would do it, it was all passive aggressive.  Just as pointed as Trump but with a smile on his face and with well timed pauses between phrases.  And it was Obama who declared to the world that Americans were exceptional meaning above all others when in fact many from other places are far better than many Americans in every way.  Aggressive narcissism is clearly present in both Trump and Obama.  But it's hard to blame them for just being human.  The herd elected them, not someone who actually cares so these two men are actually fair reflections of the herd as a group.

Well the herd as a group has been well fed because of living large off of $24 trillion in debt a rising like a rocket.  But soon enough, 2-3 years by my estimation and end 2023 by this guy's estimation the global debt ponzi will collapse and then all the new age kum ba yah goodwill is going to collapse rapidly as base human nature takes over: survival instinct.

Before you laugh at Bo Polny from the link, let me just say a few things.  He was looking for a crash in December but states that it got pushed out due to government intervention.  In all fairness, this did happen, and I reported on it when the repo market began to go sideways and needed huge intervention.  When December crash did not happen he waited until first week of Feb and came out swinging again but this time with predictions of a 35% crash starting nearly immediately after his Feb interview and then lasting until mid-end April. 

On one hand one might question that if his system was based on hard numbers then why did this change?  On the other hand, my Elliott wave model predicted the exact top and I even posted the peak of JNK (junk bond fund) as evidence that a collapse was about to happen.  Some of you even received emails from me about that as well.  But I knew when those things went out that there was a 30% chance that the timing could be altered.  And even the Bible makes mention of altered event timing being possible by "the days being shortened".

With that said he did predict a 35% collapse and so far we have a 35% collapse.  Not many besides me were predicting that.

Furthermore, his end of 2023 time frame for the coming collapse is right in line with the end of the 5th wave of the Global Debt Ponzi after which the model expect markets will collapse 75-80%.  The event is expected to be significant and long lasting.  We will go through hard times of austerity similar to 1932-45, except probably lasting until all the boomers are gone (up to 20 years from the 2023 peak.  Since the Bible is a study in numerology just like Elliott waves, who am I to laugh at Polny's claims without really having studied his methodology, especially in light of the fact that he got the crash pretty close to right?  As an engineer I say that wisdom in a person is in short supply when his first thought is "no".  Let the information in and then pick the story apart logically if you can but don't dismiss anything out of hand simply due to laziness; the future you save could be your own.

When the bill from this historic debt binge comes due it is going to be Biblical in nature. The herd is going to get downright scared.  Good will will be out the window.  Look around to see what that looks and feels like even when the threat is just corona bullshit.  People are fighting over basic resources and not just at the individual level.  Watch this vid where someone tries to call Trump out on a Kushner statement about oil reserves that are being filled belong to "us" meaning not the people but rather those running the federal government.  While it may seem pedantic, the reporter is definitely looking at things the right way.  The federal government doesn't care about people, it cares about itself staying in power.  And to do that you need resources.  The implements of control (vehicles, planes, choppers, jets, ships, tanks, etc.) are very fuel hungry.  As far as government cares, 2/3 of the people can just die off as long as the government remains intact.  The government is a living entity with a survival instinct like any other.

On the other hand, as Trump mentions, states have individual responsibilities not to become wards of the republic which need handouts at every crisis.  States should plan ahead as if they are their own sovereign units and not just use excess profits to build jumbotron TV screens at the local high school football stadium.  Or build F1 tracks or pro sports stadiums, etc.  But its very difficult for us humans to self manage intelligently which is why 70% of lotto winners eventually have to file BK (source). 

We are like bacteria.  When there is plenty of resource we spend and spend like there is no tomorrow to consume the resource as quickly as possible. We reason that if we don't do it someone else will.  We completely forget that the universe is cyclic in nature and that following the long hot beautiful day comes the endless life threateningly cold night.  No matter how many cycles occur, we cannot seem to learn this.  We cannot step back from living in the moment long enough to see the big picture.  And that is why I hope you personally know where your food source is coming from in late 2023.  And I hope you realize that "the grocery store" is a fucking stupid answer because all the sheeple in the herd are thinking the same thing.

When the Global Debt Ponzi goes into the collapse phase, this covid thing will be as a joke.  I hope it has opened your eyes up to just how close to the edge we humans are living.  The Global Debt Ponzi will be cyclical in nature.  It began with the boomers and it will end with the boomers.  The next generation is not keeping pace. The boomers were industrious and hungry.  The new generations have their superstars as well, (like Elon Musk), but in general the younger crowd does not have the same motivation.  Smoking pot is more important than learning useful stuff.  The writing is on the wall.  When the carrying capacity falls, so will the population.

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