Thursday, March 19, 2020

[IBM] update

Back in 2013 I boldly predicted that IBM would peak very soon and then pull back to as low as $50.  The chart now looks better to bottom in the $75 range.  But the important aspect of this chart is what the shape has turned into and that is an expanding wedge.  This suggests that when blue 4 is complete we have one more inflation driven wave higher into blue 5.  At that point the next economic collapse will be swift and final.  It will be the real end of the global economic system.  The likely end is not right now despite what many smart people, even Peter Schiff, are saying. 

What we *are* seeing today is just how fragile the global economy actually is.  Just 2-3 weeks of fear and the joint wants to shut down.  Today the fragility is being blamed on a super duper flu.  But this is not the reason.  The reason is that the global debt Ponzi grows long in the tooth.  The reason is that we accepted fake money as if it were real and the awakening is happening.

So please consider this post carefully.
- everyone is freaking out right now even though they did not see this pullback coming but the guy whose model saw it coming is not freaking out, but rather expecting markets to bottom into early April and then take off like a shot from a gun because that's just what to expect from the 5th wave of expanding wedges.

- very smart people like schiff, rickards, etc. are saying that the collapse is upon us.  Even Nouriel Roubini is looking very somber these days saying that if government doesn't send out free money soon then we will have rioting in the streets.   And Roubini is a very smart man.  He warned of the crash in 2006 and you can see him warning about the deficit and debt long before Coronavirus was even a thing back in Sept  of 2018.  He suggested it could arrive in 2020 as a "perfect storm".

So even with all of those big names saying its game over right here right now, my models suggest that we have one more big move up in markets before they collapse.  The next collapse will not be a BTFD (buy the fing dip) event.  The next collapse will be for the rest of my life and longer.  After the markets collapse the next time, wall street will be broken up and all the major players there will be destroyed, defunct and dissolved.

If we do see the bottom in April, remember what I said here because it will mean my model is most likely correct.  Go back and read my 2013 post on IBM.  Everything was wonderful then for this company.  But the Elliott wave count was saying something else.  Right now the experts are saying we are doomed but my count is saying something else.  I believe goldilocks inflation is over and that within 3 years it will become unmanagable for the government.  Why 2023?  Well mainly because that is where the charts look like wave 5 will end.  But also because of the 23.  Ignoring the decimal point, 2/3 is the same number as the bottom of the S+P 500 in 2009.  I suspect that Mammon money will go worthless in 2023.



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