10 year treasuries likely peaking soon. [TNX]

Many are reporting "fundamental" reasons for rising interest rates.  I believe that the true fundamentals which move them are so complex and dynamic that the important fundamentals moving rates this time are, like all other times, unknown and unknowable.  That being the case, Elliott wave analysis is the only way to understand the movements and to predict future moves. 

My current model suggests that wave black 4 is almost complete, needing just a bit more of a move until red C=red A (a very common termination point for the corrective a-b-c correction).  This model is not without limits.  It will bust if the 10 year rate goes up much past 3.5% (i.e. 35on the scale below).