Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Nice data from Eric Parnell on Seeking Alpha.

While the fundamentals clearly do not control prices in real time, there are such things as fundamentals that support asset prices and prices eventually will synch again with those fundamentals.  

Eric Parnell, CFA is a well followed contributor to Seeking Alpha and I think this article is well worth a read.  His "red alert" chart shows a huge delta and continued divergence between reported earnings and share prices.  Corporations have been buying back their own fiat currency (AKA shares), many of them using cheap debt to do it.  This is not for the benefit of retirees for sure; it is a short term way to pump the stock for the benefit of company employees, especially those at the top, until interest rates rise to the point of borrowing to buy stock is no longer cheap.  Then the share price deflates massively (look for massive insider sales first) and share prices catch down to earnings.


I'll just note for the record that since the 2015 earnings peak we have had 5 waved down.  Maybe it's just a coincidence this time.

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