[TOL] update

Last December I posted the model below on Toll brothers (ticker:TOL).  It unambiguously called for immediate entry into a 3rd of 3rd wave down.



Below is the updated chart.  The red arrow marks where the chart above was provided.  My Elliott wave model called the start of the coming collapse nearly to the day.  I say again, who can do this?  What human can use their knowledge of the industry, understanding of the so called fundamentals, their years of experience, their many appearances on CNBC and other supposedly important factors to be able to make stock price movement calls like this?

I've never found that person.  Have you?

Yet I can waltz in, admittedly having no idea of these so called fundamentals and not following the earnings or the PE or any of those supposedly important factors and make a call like this.  And this is not the first time or the 2nd time or the 20th time.  This has been happening over and over again and is well documented in this blog.

I'm not saying I know the future with certainty because that would be arrogant and stupid.  Nobody knows the future with any certainty.  But I AM saying that the factors which Wall St tells you to look at simply don't matter to the movement of stock prices.  Stocks have no intrinsic value and therefore their price depends upon the mood of the herd.  There is one and only one herd movement tracking system that can boast this kind of potential accuracy and that is Elliott waves.

Elliott waves do not guarantee anything. There are no real guarantees in life and only a child believes otherwise. But they do tell you the odds of what will likely happen next based on what the herd has been observed to do in the recent and distant past.  Herds are creatures of cycles and thus of repeating patterns when viewed by the discerning eye.

One of the main values of Elliott wave models is that they quickly tell you if they are wrong.  The disciplined gambler (yes, the stock market is nothing more than institutionalized gambling) will use a model breakdown as indication to quickly and cheaply get out of a failed bet.  Again, gambling is about odds. 

Elliott wave models improve the odds that your bet will be a winner and they get you out of failed bets quickly.


I have been providing proof of the value of Elliott waves on the free Economati blog for many years but all of the new charts are now presented only on the subscription site which you can have access to for a paltry $39.95 per month.  Give it a try.  If you don't think it is helping you make better, higher odds trades, cancel at any time.  No questions will be asked and no reasons need be given.  Your information will never be sold to a spammer and no ads will ever be seen on the paid blog (just as I have never allowed them for all these years on the free blog).