[UNG] [$NATGAS] update

Over the weekend, reader Kyle responded to the special weekend update for UGAZ with "Very thorough analysis - most definitely worth the $10.  Stepping back and looking at the big picture provides a level of clarity that can be lacking when zooming in on the 5th wave action. I tend to play UNG - I see a falling wedge there that is completing the wave 5 down that started in 2014. It will be interesting to see if December was the bottom for $natgas while UNG/UGAZ/BOIL go on to make lower lows. That implies that the action in $natgas is a wave 2 (ending very soon) and we will see the strong impulse wave 3 upwards which will lift all the $natgas related tickers.".

Well reasoned comments, Kyle.  As is often the case, more than one count makes possible sense here. For example, a falling wedge near the end of the 5th wave could look like this: 

 

A more traditional 5 wave down count would be per below.  



I'm not counting on Henry Hub making a lower low yet but I'm not counting this as 2 but rather b of 4 per below.  Yes I could be off by 1 wave and you could be correct which is why all the focus on natgas lately.  But either way the current model says rally very soon even if the associated bottom is not the bottom.  It should still be a triple up off the bottom for UGAZ.