Special Intra-Week Update on USO

I freely give a lot of useful market timing data on this blog and have done so for a long time.  While I will continue to do so into the foreseeable future the long term goal of a no-ad effort like this has always been to generate a PayGo revenue stream.  It goes without saying that useful market timing insight takes significant effort and expertise to develop and everyone eventually wants to be compensated for providing value to those who care about receiving the value in question.

I will also tell you what I have been telling an EW student that I have recently taken on (1:1 personalized on-site training) which is that counting waves entails a lot more than just knowing the rules.  The waves will give subtle hints that only the experienced eye will likely notice.  It can take years to develop these skills to any useful degree after you learn the EW rules.  The synapses need time to rearrange into the pattern matching engine needed to be any good at wave counting.  It is important to be able to read (and sometimes even just "sense") these subtle hints or you will often find that you make money and then lose money but cannot seem to get ahead.  And, just as is the case of dealing with any wild beast, the minute you stop paying attention it goes for the throat no matter how well you think you understood it.  Just ask Sigfried and Roy about that....  So you also have to pay close attention to risk management.


I have been dabbling with PayGo since just recently and these initial efforts are helping me to determine what works and what doesn't work in many aspects including what people are interested in, how interested they are in receiving it, and how I can appeal to a broad enough audience to make the effort worth my time.  Additionally I have been learning about how the technology works to deliver paid content.  I have found that Blogger is crippled in terms of doing things like creating private pages for content delivery and that is probably why most people are moving to WordPress these days.  When I gain enough experience with PayGo on Blogger, my subscription site will certainly be WordPress based.

In any case, for the initial two special weekend updates that I released, I found through the use of Google Analytics that N people paid and 7N people ended up getting access.  I doubt if the lion's share of this was because people shared the links I provided upon receipt of payment.  I think it was because the links had no security except that of security by obscurity which poses no resistance to a web crawler.  So future updates like the the one below for USO will be delivered via PDF emailed to those who purchase them.

USO
In any case, we know that we are approaching a near term bottom in USO but the question for traders is how will I know with any confidence?  What should I be looking for?  How will I know if something unexpected is happening?  How good is my track record for figuring this stuff out solo?  How much will I make or lose if I get it right or wrong?

And since this coming bottom is expected to be a significant bottom, this information is useful to those looking to time the entry of a longer term buy and hold.  I'll try not to repeat it too often but it does need to be said because of the influx of new readers I am getting: I think I have proven that you can not do market timing using so called fundamentals.

And you certainly can't listen to the financial news and get any sense of things because they just flip flop with the market movements and then weave fancy stories around the events so as to convince people that they actually know something when in fact they do not.  
 


Nothing and I mean nothing is a crystal ball.  The herd has free will and that will never change.  The future is not certain and the only thing this universe offers is likelihood of occurrence of anything.  Odds and not certainties.  The only thing that I have ever seen or used that has any real track record for calling the turns with reasonable odds of success is the Elliott wave principle as interpreted by a person with significant experience at it.  I wish it were easier but then if it were everyone would make money in the markets and of course we know that is impossible in a Win-Lose proposition like stock trading.

If you want my detailed insights on the near and medium term future of USO, please consider PayGo. The cost is $10. To purchase this, copy and paste the code 0223_USO_PDF into the box below and then click Pay Now. You will receive a PDF by email.  This process is still manual so please don't expect immediate delivery, especially for my many worldwide readers.  A captain has to sleep sometimes ;  )

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