[ORIG] update

In the backlink I provided the model below.   It suggested that we need to move down into the 80 cent range before the model would likely be counted as 5 waves down.




Before discussing the model below I have to remind readers that these are just models.  The fed has models.  Economists have models.  Structural engineers and civil engineers have models.  Models are not perfect and anyone hoping that they will be able to regularly catch the exact bottom is really kidding themselves.  SOMETIMES I will nail the exact bottom to the penny.  But sometimes I will be off by 50%.  The difference between winning and losing here is the use of stops.  Trying to catch the exact bottom is sport, not investing. 

I saw a potential ORIG bottom at 92 cents on Monday.  I know we are near a significant bottom and I know how fast these things can reverse and I do not have time to watch in real time because I have a day job.  So the play for me was to take the chance but to bow out easily unless everything went exactly as I wanted it to go.  I was subsequently stopped out at 91 cents.  Now its 77 cents.  You do the percentage math.  If you take the chance to win while limiting your losses, you will win over time.  It takes discipline and few people make themselves do it religiously but that is what it takes to win, especially in a ridiculously volatile environment like we are seeing right now.

So today we made another step in the expected direction.  The bottom could have been put in today but I would expect blue 5 to be the length of blue 1.  Blue 1 is 5 or 5.5 units, so that is what we should expect from blue 5.  

So we could end up with a unicorn tail down into the $0.66 range in the AM trading tomorrow in order to complete the wave.  I would see that as an aggressive buying opportunity for two reasons:
1: the chart would match the model nicely.
2: you know exactly where your stop goes when dealing with a unicorn tail.  It goes 1 penny below the inverted spike.

I bought a half position today and if this gaps down I will get taken out tomorrow AM but then I will be sitting there with a full position waiting for the unicorn tail to bottom and then buy back in big.

I want to say that this wave since late December could be counted several ways and it got the count that it did mainly because of the GOE in the red 4 position.  I'm still formulating GOE theory but it seems to be associated with penultimate waves which means 4 or B.

I also bought FCX with stops below 4.75, DSX with stops at 2.05, RUSL with stops at 7.40, JNUG with stops at 41.40, ARP with stops at .56 and finally LL with stops at 11.60.