Give [UGAZ] very little leeway here to do the wrong thing.

Last Friday I suspected that we could get final sharp down today to finish the current falling wedge.  Not only did we get that, we also got a rapid move back up to the opening price only to close four 10ths of a cent in the red.  It was a good sized reversal on the day even if it didn't close green.  I caught nearly the exact bottom (so far) as documented here.

So is this falling wedge REALLY done?  Well, if you only go by the  log scale chart per below then likely yes.  The wave broke the lower rail and then quickly popped back above it and closed above it.  And since this ticker contains time value, log scale is really the best indicator here (or should be).



But I would be more comfortable if both the log and linear charts looked complete.  However the linear chart does not look complete as you can see below. 

If we get a rapid move down to the lower rail per the red (which was chosen as primary because it is the conservative view point) or maybe a slight throw under of that then I would have higher confidence in saying what likely comes next.  The herd has left itself options here.

If we instead get the blue breakout shown below (which is a 45:55 second to the red in odds) then the momo crowd will come piling in quickly and tack on 30 or 40% in an eye-blink from these levels.

Bottom line: don't be tolerant of any downside here.  We should be seeing upward movement starting tomorrow or we'll have to grow suspicious that the recent unicorn tail was not the bottom.  As you can perhaps tell by now, I putt for dough.  I never fall in love with a model.  When I smell trouble there is often trouble.  The key to winning is simply not to hang around for trouble.  Let others who "believe" in something take the fall.  The only things I believe in with respect to charting are the real time data, the notion that the charts will eventually take on an EW pattern and that the herd has the power to change direction  any time it feels too many predators close on the heel.