We should know very quickly in early January if this model is correct or not. Right now all the bad news is baked into the price. The divvy to common shareholders has been cut but not eliminated and it is still more than 10%. Moody's still calls it investment grade. So if the broader indices swoon in January and commodities get one final smack down then VNR could present a major buying opportunity both in terms of short term cap gains as well as in long term buy and hold for the 15-18 percent divvy which would be captured by buying this in the $2 range.
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