[USO] update

At the backlink I was modeling that today should be a near term bottom at the very least.


Today's actual is below.  While it closely matches the above model, this is one interpretation.  It is not the only one and there are things about it that I wish were not so.  For example, [3] and [5] are much bigger drops than [1].   What I do like about it is that the only gap of size in the structure is in the 3 of 3 position where it ought to be.  Stops should definitely be set at $8.89 because a gap down there could spell much lower lows in a washout bottom.



Let's assume that the current model is correct.  Where the heck are we in the big picture??  According to the model below, we should have just hit the bottom of 3 of 5 of W3.  Wave 4 of 5 of W3 should be a trade-able rally albeit more of a sideways move than a vee if my model is correct because 2 of 5 was a vee.  So we could have a week or 10 days of rally followed by one more strong down wave where USO could hit sub $8 but then, and this is VERY important, we should get a very hard vee style rally back up to the $20 range.  Why a vee here?  Because look how sideways [[2]] was! 

If [W3] finished by late January then the rally into [4] should be months long, perhaps even into late 2016.  It should be 3 wave in nature; this is what will tell us that the model is correct.  Again we must not expect a 4th wave HT here due to alternation because 2 was such a sideways affair.



So to recap, we are now looking for 3 waves up to carry us up to $11.36 (the 38.2 fib) followed by one more down stroke to the low $8, high $7 range in order to complete [[w3]].  After that you should just buy and hold until we get a huge 3 wave bounce to the USO $20 range.  It hardly even makes sense to trade that kind of vee.  It is very difficult to catch every wave exactly right and the odds are that the vee will be strong as shown.