[USO] update

Below is a zoom of the bottom chart from the backlink. USO was trading at about $9.10 at the time and the model was anticipating a small rally into the low $10s and then a final plunge to $8 before rallying back up into the channel and then essentially doubling in 2016.



The zoom in of the current snapshot is below.  Blue 4 did not bounce as high as expected but blue 5 did nail the $8 range as expected and then put in a nice looking inclining double bottom.  The fact that the chart is following the model increases the odds that the count is correct.  I also noted that ORIG bottomed at almost exactly $1 (99 cents to be exact) on the 19th and is now already trading at $1.25 again.  These are stupid low prices for that ticker and fools will be sorry they didn't get some exposure at this price.  I wonder what ORIG will be trading for if USO follows the vee bounce model shown?  My model suggests it will be $9.





But what about the news?  What about all the new Iran oil coming to market now that sanctions are being lifted from them?  What about Morgan Stanley predicting $20 oil?  What about Jim Cramer saying oil could go to $10???  Didn't some pretty girl on MSNBC tell us with a twinkle in her eye that everything is going to $hit in a hand basket?

Well, I think you know that I just view all of this as more signs that a serious bottom is likely in place.   It's always darkest before the dawn because humans extrapolate current conditions into perpetuity.  Despite the fact that it never happens we continue to think that trees will grow to reach the sky.  Also, the human mind does not seem very good at doing percentages.  With oil currently at $30, Cramer throws around "oil to $10" statements seemingly without realizing that this is yet another 66% loss from current levels.  In other words, he's almost flippant about it now even though he's referring to the most important commodity on the planet.

Oil may get down to $20 before this crash is over but it will likely see $55 to $60 first because of the 4th wave vee bounce that I expect to see.  Jim Cramer, MSNBC, and Morgan Stanley have no idea whatsoever that this is even possible, much less likely.