[ATW] update

In my first post on ATW I provided the model below.  It essentially said that wave 5 was in progress but not to be surprised by a rapid dip down to even $5.  The reason for thinking it could go lower is that commodities like to extend the 5th wave.



Today's linear chart looks just like yesterday's except it is now about in the middle of the red circle which is my target bottoming range ($6.07 closing price).  Just follow over from the right hand scale in the chart above and see where $6 brings it.  The reason I want you to think about it like this is that it was a 17% drop!  This is clearly panicking into a capitulation bottom.  There is ALWAYS a market for EVERYTHING, literally even a truck load of cow shit (we call it "manure") for the right price.  this will find a bottom, buyers will come out of the woodwork - panicked buyers even.  But the buyers will come when they see the plummeting stop and this is going to bounce hard when that happens IMO.

More interesting that the linear chart is the log chart. You can see that neckline running through a head and shoulders breakdown.  Look at the multiple support points which exist on that line and then how recently it broke that line down, back tested it from below and then plummeted.  Th fall from the neckline is now just slightly longer than the height of the head so we should be just a very small number of days away from being done if not already done.

Likewise, when the coming bounce tests that line from below, bounces down, and then gaps up and over it you will know we are likely on our way to $18-$20 worst case (level of the prior 4th). The 38.2 fib of the drop so far is $26.



It's possible that Monday could be a washout event with the unicorn tail being put in.  FWIW, my EW model indicates that if today was not the bottom then Monday will be.  If we washout on Monday then it would not surprise me to see an intra-day reversal which is attributed to "news".

Catching the exact bottom SHOULD NOT be expected!!  How many people in the world do you think do that on any kind of consistent basis?  So while I always endeavor to achieve it, I know that this should be considered sport and not a real trading goal.  I have written as much many times.  What I'm saying is that if you bought this at $8 and are now 25% down because of failed discipline on use of stops then now is likely the wrong time to sell.  We are now in the "going straight down" phase as I have pointed out so many times before.  For all we know this might plummet to $2 (not likely but never say never) but it is going to be temporary and more than likely momentary.

Thank the fed for all of this volatility and turmoil.  They engineered the whole damned thing.



this is a buying event not a selling one.