In the backlink I provided the model below.
The updated snapshot below suggests that what I labeled green 5 was just part of 5 of green 5.
Zooming way in we can see how green 4 was formed. Buy this at the open tomorrow and stop out 1 penny below the lows of Dec 1st. The nat gas crash may well be over. Of course, UGAZ has time value in it so it should not be thought of as a buy and hold.
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