[ORIG] update

In the backlink I provided the model below which essentially said that failure to break out of the top rail was likely going to result to a trip down to $1.50 before skyrocketing upward as shown.



Since then we had the unusual action shown below which broke the above model by breaking out the top rail at the red circle but unable to hold it.  It then did a unicorn tail down to center channel of Andrew's pitchfork.

Had the selling taken the above form I would have been betting that it would make it all the way to the lower rail but by attempting a break out the herd aggregate movement suggests that there are a growing number of players who are developing FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) at these levels.  The end result will likely be a trend bottoming that does not occur as low as modeled above and which occurs sooner than that modeled above.



So my new model below shows both of those aspects.  I piled into ORIG in the $1.74 range on Friday after it already bottomed from that unicorn tail.  My stops are set to $1.66.




ORIG today might have the lowest valuation I have ever seen for a company that is making money.  Trailing PE of zero point 76??  Forward PE of 2.13??  And price to book of zero point zero seven????

REALLY??

Think about what that means.  The shares are trading as if the company is worth seven percent of book value!!  Ocean Rig is not some high flying Internet sensation with tons of so called "Goodwill" pumping up its book value.  Its book value consists of boats and equipment.  Prechter told us that this exact thing was coming and why (deflation) and now here it is.


ORIG is absolute in your face proof that stocks have no intrinsic value and that their value is all sentiment based.  Right now the herd thinks oil will become free soon.  Yes, that's right, gold is a pet fucking rock and oil is nothing but an environmental disaster.  The herd has its collective head firmly up its ass but hey, that is the right of the herd and it does no good to cry "foul" or "unfair", baw, baw, baw.  There is nothing unfair about it at all.  It's like telling the sun it is shining too brightly on a Texas summer day.

Instead of complaining about it we have to see it for what it is: a gift.  Does that mean it cannot go down more??  Of course it does not mean that!  It was also a gift at $6 and at $3!  The herd is going to stampede south until it is just plain old tuckered out about it and then it is going to move north.  A slow turn north is the most lasting kind.  But unless there is major fraud going on here, this is likely going to reverse upward very, very soon.  Perhaps as soon a Monday.  A big gap up would strongly suggest that a major, major bottom was in.