[JNUG] update

At the backlink we had the model below.



While nothing has changed much since the last model I want to present a new model per below.  The main issue I have with the blue model above is that JNUG has to go all the way back to near zero just to approach the bottom rail.  Not that this cannot happen with JNUG but that if my count is correct here, this is very near the 5th wave down from a monster bear starting in 2011.  The minimum bounce point is the level of the prior 4th and that is 240-250 no matter how low this goes.  Mr. Market cannot take this down to $2  because too many EWERs will not be afraid to mortgage the house at that level.  Not because of the $2 number but rather because of the wave count.  All these people would want to get paid for their risk.  Mr. Market can allow a few tenacious players to make 10x but I don't think there are enough assets in JNUG to handle everyone getting rich.





So where does this leave us from an EW perspective?   From that recent top rail bump we need 3 waves down and wave count always trumps price targets.  Zooming in we can see how I can justify the above model from an EW perspective.

You can see how another rail kiss would fill the gap, complete the 4th at the 38.2 fib and leave a DDT.   I stopped the red line from going down to kiss the middle channel line again at $17-$18 in the model so as 5 would be the same length as 1.  We can start there but if we see heavy moving waves to the downside, look to the middle channel to provide support for 5 of C of 5 of 2 (Avis model is still my top model for this).

But even under the short term bullish, long term bearish EWI model JNUG will do at least a 5 bagger to the upside once it bottoms.  Few people have any idea that sentiment against gold is at not a 5 or 10 year or 15 year low but rather an all time low for as long as they have been tracking sentiment numbers on gold.

Here is some proof about that claim (BUT EWI gives other more direct proof in their paid service).

Here is more.

But wait, hedge funds are the smart money, aren't they??  Why would we want to bet against them?  Haven't they been on TV?

Truth is that hedge fund managers are people too and they come and go all the time.  Most are like Whitney: they think they really know the fundamentals of what drives short and medium term share prices.  Very few use technical analysis as a primary market timing mechanism.  If they did then those hedge funds shorting gold would not be doing what they are doing.

BTW, I used red below because it is the only model on the page.  But for now this is still an alternate model  I want to see how it does up against that top rail before declaring it top model.