[DIS] update

The primary (bearish) model in the backlink continues to gain traction with today's action on Disney.  Red below is primary but I will caution shorts that the chart could go either of 2 ways here:

1) primary model is the red path which says that the down wave is now into the region of what would have been wave 1 up (its marked red a below).  If this model is correct then the current low cannot be a 4th wave and thus a deep vee DDT is suspected.  IF this is the case it will begin to collapse at an accelerated rate within the next 1-2 weeks.

2) alternate model (blue) is still possible and becomes a lot more likely if we see a gap up this week as shown.  Blue says that red a is mismarked and that the real first wave up is per red a' below.  I say a, but of course it means 1 or a as it could be either right now.  A break below 99 eliminates that count.

EWI is still looking for another wave higher in the DJIA before the real peak is in but my model says that we are already in wave 3 of 1 down on DIS.  If DIS goes down, I cannot believe it will be going down alone.  The recent record busting opening on Star Wars should be a fundamental factor driving the shares higher but of course fundamentals do not drive share prices over the short and often times even the medium term. 

Does anyone fundamentally believe that oil is going out of style?  No?  Then why is it in the toilet as if all oil has become radioactive waste?  The reason is simple: fundamentals are not in charge of the stock markets.  Human behavior is and we humans love to herd.  When we see something going up we pile on regardless of the fact that we don't know why its going up.  We just don't want to be alone.   When it goes down we distance ourselves emotionally from it.  Herding animals don't mind adversity as long as they have company.  But no member of the herd wants to stand alone and have others cast aspersion and hurl insults and derision.  Some of us are less sensitive to the peer pressure and thus more immune, more independent, more willing to stand apart from the herd if we think that makes sense but the vast majority let peer pressure and herding behavior control far more of their lives than people even imagine.

So much for fundamentals.

What I'm waiting for is to see what excuse they will make for DIS going down.  They always have to have some kind of reason else people might begin to realize that the talking head media is clueless about what moves stocks.