Commodity bottoming watch via the eyes of [AA]

I've been pretty good at calling the valleys and peaks of Alcoa over the past few years which you can observe by following through the backlinks.  Part of this success has to be related to trying to look at things from multiple angles instead of just assuming my current model will be correct until it busts.

My current model for AA is below and it is looking for one more wave down as shown.

 

That model may still play out but given the bottoming process I am observing in other commodities right now I can also see the model below playing out.  The nice thing about this model is that we know it is bust if we get a lower low than the right hand dip of the most recent small double bottom.  In other words, what makes a nice model is just as dependent on it being wrong quickly if it is going to be wrong.

If we begin to bounce here, BOLO the blue E of red 4 throw over before hitting one more final deflationary collapse into the end of 2017 and then massive if not hyperinflation coming in 2018, just where the TDAmeritrade chart goes crazy and then resets to 1883. It remains like this for many years now despite me having complained to them multiple times.  So they know it is like this and have left it such for some reason.

I say again, deflation never last forever in a fake money environment.  NEVER.  When congress effectively takes control of the money supply (i.e. begins to order the federal reserve around or even shitcans Yellen and installs their own puppet), that is the beginning of massive if not hyperinflation in the US.  Something has to happen to stop the boomers getting their value out of the markets and hyperinflation would fit the bill.