[JNUG] update

JNUG is trying to be as sneaky and noncommittal as possible.  In the backlink I cautioned about how this C of D wave could turn into a 4th wave HT.




Today's update shows something similar to above but not quite.  Note that this is highly zoomed in, only showing the area that was suspected might turn out to be a 4th wave HT.

The dip today went a bit too far to be a normal HT.  At the same time, each internal wave counts as a 3.  So this is mos def some kind of triangle.   Worst likely case is that it will still behave like a 4th wave HT with 5 waves down from here to around 34.50-$36 as a bottom.  The most effective move would be a rapid head fake down to paint the chart and then rapid move up before the shock and awe wears off.  I held this all through today, getting a big nervous when it was down 6+% with the lower rail no longer down sloping but decided to just let it ride because the larger structure was still intact.  But after it threw over the top rail into the close and then came back into the channel I decided to bail at essentially flat from my buy price.

I will be watching this carefully at the open.  A gap up will tell me that the reversal is already in progress.  If we don't get that, I'll BOLO a move to a lower low, whether in 3 waves as should be the case for a falling wedge or whether in 5 waves as if it were following completion of an HT.  As long as the lower rail of the potential HT that began in late July does not begin to tip down the current model is intact.  But if this moves down hard from current levels, Avi's 5th of 5 of 5 is likely in progress with GDXJ target of $15, ABX target of $5, and JNUG target of "O God, Oh God, make it stop".

Note that EWI is now, for the first time, beginning to second guess their bullish gold count.  Maybe that means it's time for a bullish reversal ;  )