Sunday, November 29, 2015

[GM] General Motors at critical inflection point

I think this is my first official post on GM, certainly the first since I began using [TICKER] convention in the post titles.  I think GM has been slowly getting ready for a major collapse since the late 2013 peak.   Lower highs and lower lows.  And the recent highs have been driven by subprime lending.  When interest rates go up, all this crazy credit based growth will collapse.

Of course, the question is always "when".   My EW model indicated that the recent rising wedge was likely C of green 2.  A gap below the lower rail at the red arrow is expected next by this model as wave green 3 of red 3 begins to play out. 

I might be one small wave early on this.  The recent peak might have been 3 of the rising wedge and not 5 of it.  A gap below the lower rail would be the indication that my current model is correct and if it is going to happen it must occur very soon.  If I am off by 1 small wave then there could be another dollar upside for 5 of C of 2 to finish (i.e. 37.50).



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