[FB] update

Backlink.

My track record on interpreting the face book chart has not been good.   It has just kept powering up.  Fortunately, the EW system never says "hey, we said a top was near so just hold forever".  Instead, we say "we think the odds are good that a top or bottom is in place" and that post comes with clear stop loss levels.  If you are losing more than 3% ante when the chart goes against you, you are doing something wrong.  Typically that means no buying when the chart says to buy only then to see the shares take off in the modeled direct and then the trader chases the shares upwards.  As soon as the shares are caught, they reverse back down and the buyer is in an immediate loss situation which pride does not allow selling into.  Thus, stops are not used and instead of selling for a small loss mechanically, the trader sells for a larger loss out of fear.

Sound familiar?  Been there, done that, got the trophy for it in years past.

In any case, I think I'm finally seeing a high odds topping setup in FB shares.  So I'm taking another shot at calling a top on FB here with that little owl that you see under red 5 blue 5.  The first indication that this model is correct will be a move back into the channel.



Again, unlike other market timing systems, I will know very quickly if this is wrong.  Per below, the herd can still choose if the recent high is 3 of blue 5 or if it is C of cyan 2.  1 penny above blue C means cover the short and wait for blue 5 to play out.  Conversely, a move below 107.50 will greatly increase the odds that this is going to be a declining double top.  Other things are possible but these are the top two odds plays.