[WMT] likely at a nice trading bottom.

You probably don't expect me to talk up WMT after being so negative on it all this time but I do think that it just hit at or within $1-$2 of a significant bottom with nice trading upside likely in the near term cards.  From the backlink we have the model below which is targeting the $57 range.  This was chosen because it is where 5 is the same length as 1 shown by the red bars.



Zoomed in current actual is per below.  I count a huge 1 then vee 2 then wedge 3 the sideways 4 and then 5 small waves down into red 5where red 5 stayed shorter than red 3 lest red 3 be the smallest thus invalidating this count.

The metrics for a good count are in large part the risk factor and by that metric this is a very likeable count.  Why?  Because there is literally zero margin for fooling around.  This count MUST go up from here or it is wrong, period.  If wrong, you bail, period.  If it goes 1 penny to a new low, you are out.  When this means is that you can bet big but still lose a small ante if the wave count goes against you.

Odds and not certainties!

By the way, the range for bounce is $68 to $74 and could be all the way to $78.  So its well worth trading IMO.  You know the buyers have arrived when this breaks back above the down sloping blue line. 

We must keep a careful eye on the structure of the bounce.  If it is 5-3-5 then to the level of the prior 4th then WMT is going down hard/has lost all faith of the markets.  Never forget that stock market prices have a lot less to do with valuation metrics than they do with the mood of the herd.  Stocks are just another essentially worthless fiat currency which only have value until the herd says they don't at which time they both eventually go worthless.  How many 100 year old companies are there?  How many 100 year old currencies?  Neither tend to age very well, so saith the data.