Wednesday, October 14, 2015

[MCD] update

In the backlink I provided the chart below with the comment that Micky Ds was likely neigh on collapse.



The WC morphed into what appears to be a valid 4th wave HT whose E wave completed and now the 5th and final wave of C has broken out the top rail.  I'd like to see it make a slightly higher high and then drop back into the channel of the HT.  If you wait for that sell signal - for the top rail to give way after blue 5 has complete - that would very very likely signal party over for McD.


As I have mentioned before, that HT in the middle of the wave like that should be very disconcerting to anyone who can read a chart.  It means that everything since 2003 was not likely motive and thus is all likely corrective.

Oh My.

Do you know what would have to happen to the economy for Mickey D's to begin tracing out some kind of triangle here, perhaps catching itself at $18, perhaps not even able to stop from hitting a lower low than 2003? Liquidity (credit availability) would have to dry up to nothing.  Banks would have to become fearful of lending money to each other much less anyone else.  Mickey Ds is little more than a global real estate company which borrowed its business.  It has 4bn cash and 17.9bn in debt.  Today, fools of all kinds consider this normal, the new normal.  But debt only buys more earnings at the beginning of the debt Ponzi.  Toward the end, it becomes a monster drag on falling earnings.

Be patient with MCD shorts, but be ready.  The chart suggests that MCD is going to plummet into 2016.  And the first indication of trouble could happen this week (a break down back into the HT).  As MCD reaches new highs even though the DJIA is still down 1300 points off its ~18400 highs, people will think I am ka-wazy to believe that McD can fall like this.

Time will tell but I like my odds.  Remember, stair steps up, elevator down.  Ye olde pump and dump.  One of the oldest con games in history.  That's all this supernova economy is.

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