Current actual seems to be following the model. If this is a B wave there are a few possible outcomes. For example, this itself could turn into a HT or possibly another complex kind of dividing wave between A and C. In fact, it could even be a giant expanded flat that retraced wave 1 up which began in Oct. Bottom line is that at the first sign of model breakage I am out of JDST.
While there are many possibilities, I think that my original model currently remains the most likely model. Not because of gut feel; gut feel is your enemy. The reason is the low level wave count. Zooming in on the current wave, I model for a small rally in the AM to fill the gap and then a hard reversal downward to new lows which should be 3 of C, well worth JDSTing for.
Here is more detail on why I think that 1 of C down completed today along with most of or all of wave 2 of C. Below is the 1 minute chart which has a nice wave count of 5 down that includes a very compelling HT 4. Then I see expanding wedge to about the level of the prior 4th which is complete with 3 of C of 2. Note the small gap to fill.
As usual, the break below the top rail is the first confirmation and subsequently below the lower rail moves the odds way up for this model.
In JDST today at 23.2 .... looks like the ECB is addicted to more money printing
ReplyDeleteIf that's your view then why short the juniors with jdst. shouldn't you buy jnug? Of course I don't trade the news, I think it is meaningless to the direction of stocks.
ReplyDeleteI believe more stimulus from ECB will boost the dollar strength temporarily, which will hurt gold.
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