[JNUG] update

Per the backlink model, I can't really say I was taken by surprise at today's massive 14% drop in this ETF.   In fact, if you follow the backlinks to this post on the 16th you will see that I strongly suspected how this would turn out all the way back then.  After all, if w3 was put in then we should like to see a 4th wave and what better 4th than a HT?




Below is the current snapshot of the 5 minute chart.  I actually drew in the green model last night.  I think tomorrow is up in the AM long enough to draw some more longs in so I actually swung out of JDST into the close today for a tidy profit and am holding JNUG overnight.  If this is not up immediately at the open tomorrow I'll be looking to flip back short into JDST again very quickly.

This could move up to $43 before reversing back downward and finishing the 5th wave.  This has been quite a profitable little segment of time due to me seeing the most likely herding movement pattern fairly well in advance.  It gave me plenty of time to plan my moves and provided clear trigger points at which I could put stops.

The next big test of this model comes tomorrow: it MUST find support at about where the rising green line is sitting else the 5th and final wave down into Avi's big 2nd wave is likely already in progress.  It can fall a bit lower than shown below without busting the model but not very much.  I would think something between $35.5 and $36.5 would be about right.  Of course what matters is 5 wave down, not price level.  When 5 more small waved down are put in, I'm out of JDST and back into JNUG for what I model to be a likely ride to >$60.  A throwover and subsequent plunge back into the channel is your key to flee JNUG and flip short into JDST.

Again, folks, this is about odds and not certainties.  So don't blindly believe in this model even though it has served us well so far.  If something happens that you don't expect, don't just sit there and take it.  STOP OUT and then consider what else might be happening.  You can always get back in.

Said differently, drive for show, putt for dough.

By the way, if we are actually finishing C  of D here then I expect the next wave up to be bisected by a vee style B retracement as shown below because the last B was sideways and complex.