[JNUG] - detailed planning for the next purchase

If you follow the backlinks you will see that I have been in nearly perfect tune with the wave count of JNUG for several weeks now.  The common saying on Wall St is that past performance does not guarantee future results and that is true for anything in a chaotic system or semi chaotic system or seemingly chaotic system.  It is my experience that wave counters move in and out of tune with the counts and that the counting is more accurate in some areas than in others.  Don't ask me why.  Requiring a detailed explanation for every observed phenomenon before being able to take advantage of it is like requiring a detailed meaning of life before you can begin living.  It is enough for most intents and purposes to simply acknowledge that something is or is not, has or has not.  Besides, man is not capable of comprehending the infinite level of detail required in order to remove all chance, all chaos from the equation.  When a butterfly can flap its wings in Japan to kick off a series of turbulence events that will result in tornadoes across the world, what is the use of trying to explain it given our lack of omniscience and omnipotence?  This is why I maintain that the true fundamentals are unknown and unknowable to man.

Having said that, in EW analysis recent past correctness doesn't guarantee anything but it does increase the odds of being correct in the near term.  At the end of the day it is always about odds and never about certainties which is why all bottoming or topping calls on this blog always have the intrinsic caveat of USE STOPS because the model might become invalidated.  Model invalidation is not failure.  The only failure is watching a model invalidate and then failing to act.  That is not something I can control in my readers.  Failure to let one's thinking side override one's emotional side is a personal issue.

So, here is my view of the likely way JNUG plays out next week.   Simply worded, 3 waves down have transpired from blue b/red e.  The current model requires 5.

• Green 3 is shorter than green 2 per the red vertical measurement stick and thus wave 5 must be shorter than green 3 (i.e. reverse upward before ~$34) else the model is busted.  Please don't go away thinking that this must happen;  "else the model is busted" is always a possibility.
• A move back above the blue horizontal without one more wave down also busts this model. 
• In the diagram below, orange 3, 4, and 5 are stretched out to bottom some time before noon but if this gaps down Monday AM then it will likely be trying to put in a unicorn tail type finish.  So the 4th wave might be a very fast bounce after the gap followed by one fast and final plunge to something just above $34 before reversing upward.  You have to be ready right at the start of the trading day if you want to be there with your Gatling gun all set up on the tripod as the herd dashes into your sights.   In the case of a unicorn tail finish, the optimal slaughter will occur in a very short time window.
• The blue model would just be a HT 4th wasting time but the end result would be the same in terms of bottoming price.
• If you catch the bottom on this, set stops just below the red vertical that marks the limit of wave 5.  If this is exceeded to the downside, all bets are off and Avis final lower low in M+M could be unfolding.  Don't sit there and take it... 

During the execution of this I encourage what I would characterize as resolute calm.  Don't get excited or manic just because the model is working out.  Wait for the full 5 waves down and then buy and then set stops per above.  In any hunt, the most accurate shots are made by he who calmly squeezes the trigger instead of jerking it.  If you bailed out when I did (never mind swinging short like I did), do keep in mind the huge ass kicking that you just side stepped here.  So you have a buffer that others do not.  Use that to enhance your feeling of confidence in the model while respecting the clearly stated limits of this model.