Sunday, October 25, 2015

[HUI] update

Per the backlink, HUI continues to inch toward the range of wave 1. 



Not much has changed in the current snapshot below.  The big news is what happens when this approaches the tip of wave red 1.  If it goes 1 penny into the range of wave 1 then at the very least it removes the potential that 5 waves down will finish this off.  The most it can be under that condition is a 3 wave move as shown in red below.   IF this turns out to be a falling wedge finish then 4 can briefly break into the range of 1.  The most satisfying finish is shown below but we all know that at the very end of a wave count the herd can be tricky.  I continue to believe that most people should be cost averaging into something golden. 



While we will certainly see whipsaw volatility at this point, know in advance that you are not buying the top of anything here.  You are buying at or near the great depression bottom at a time when all world governments are seeing weakening growth at a time when they have made many promises that require robust growth.  Money printing is the historical mechanism for dealing with this.  Sooner or later the people will realize that all paper money is worthless because all world governments are liars.  They are all bankrupt.  Per below, US national debt is 18.5 trillion which is 154k per taxpayer.  Of course, not all taxpayers are created equal.  Wal-Mart workers are taxpayers, they can never pay 154k.  At the end of the day, the only real way to pay this off is to inflate away the value of saver's savings.  That means the more you have, the more you have to lose.  Forget about fair or unfair.  Those who cannot pay will not pay and those with the ability to pay will in fact pay.  Period.

As if that weren't bad enough the people have followed government example and racked up 17 additional trillion in personal debt.  I dare say that we will never be paying off the 35 trillion in debt.  Just wait until interest rates go up and all of this has to be rolled over somehow.  A huge part of this lurks in housing debt.  When I say "roll over" in that category, I do not necessarily mean that you go refi for more years, etc.  Selling a home is essentially rolling over the associated debt using another debtor.  That's because few if anyone actually buys a $600k shoe box on the coast or in a big city.  99% of the people that I know have a mortgage.  When interest rates go up, fewer and fewer will qualify for these ridiculous mortgages.  Sooner or later there will be a massive collapse that will not get bailed out.  The bail out scam has already been played once.  They won't get away with it again.

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