Today's chart shows that the model is doing its job. So the model is telling me today that we are at or very nearly at the bottom of this pullback in UVXY:
For the same reasons that shorts are screaming bloody murder right now, (i.e. gut feel AKA emotions AKA no model to be guided by), the longs are all getting wound up thinking that the fed is going to say cheery things to save the markets.
But the aggregate subconscious mind of the herd, i.e. its herding instinct as read by the Elliott wave model, tell me that no matter what the fed says, the market will find a way to make bad news out of it. The most obvious way this could be expressed would be for an initial DJIA move up into or on the news followed by an intraday reversal which would signal that ~1000 points were about to be trimmed from the DJIA.
This model predicts that in short order, UVXY will go from the 40s to the 100s.
This is not a guess but neither is it a promise. It should be treated as a potentially fallible but high odds of happening gamble. This is all you can get from EW but it is far, far better than any other stock market timing system that has ever been available to the public before.
You will know that the rally has begun when the lower rail of that falling wedge is retaken.
Took a bite of uvxy today when it dipped to 44.
ReplyDeleteMe too. I figured I would hedge my JNUG bet with some UVXY so at this point I'm going to just hold the UVXY for at least long enough for the markets to tell me what they are really going to do. UVXY could be in a deep vee 2nd but it could also be that the recent move Aug into Sep was just an a-b-c retracement.
ReplyDeleteIf UVXY does a small a-b-c to peter out at $44 again I will probably bail because it looks like the current move down could have been w3 of C of 2. But if wedges are 3s or Cs then it could have been C of 2 as well and that it what I want to scope out tomorrow.
Fed left rate unchanged ..... maybe we'll see that intraday reversal soon; of maybe the drop will manifest tomorrow.
ReplyDelete