Trying to catch the exact bottom is sport, not an investing strategy.

Just a quick post here which should apply to most of the people reading this blog.  In short, we are very, very near the end of a commodities bear that has set all kinds of records.  It is literally a great depression in commodities.  Across the board, copper, iron, oil, and precious metals have all collapsed since 2011, each under their own wave counts but now all going down at the same time and all of them having wave counts that look terminal.  This has happened despite massive money printing since 2009.  The monetary base went from 800bn to well over 4 tn during that time.  The model suggests that 5 waves up is nearly complete and that we should expect 3 big waves down to the level of the prior 4th.  Why would the fed ever reduced the monetary base like this?  Only one reason I can think of which is that we get a period of rapidly rising commodity (read "food") price increases (old inflation catching up with the economy) and so they try to shrink the money supply to handle it. 
 

All of the money printing over the past years is eventually going to result in massive price inflation.  It's just that the credit deflation has been working against it.  But at some point in the supernova economy model, the contraction is complete and the massive and rapid expansion will begin.  By this I don't refer to economic expansion.  I refer to inflation expansion.  And not because the money supply is growing.  In truth we have a lot more debt collapse to endure before this is over.  No, the inflation I am talking about has nothing to do with growth of the money supply but rather price inflation due to loss of confidence in the issuer of the unbacked, faith based money supply.

Nobody and I mean nobody is talking about this that I know of.  They keep onto their mantras of traditional metrics and causes of inflation and deflation.  Even Mish, who is a very bright economic mind, rarely talks about the eventual inevitable collapse of the fraudulent, unbacked money supply and it never factors into his calculations of inflation and deflation.  Yes, he has said that at some point he expects a "currency event" but you have to search hard to find it.  It is certainly not top of mind in his daily posts.

Well, its always the velociraptor that comes at you sideways while you are monitoring the one in front of you that kills you.

So my point is this: commodities and miners have come down far enough that you are certainly not buying the peak nor even the middle.  Blood is flowing in rivers down commodity lane as I type.  Only the best and most lucky EWers will have any chance at all of calling the exact bottom.  Yes, I have thrown my hat into the ring here but I freely admit that I could be one wave too early and that these final waves represent huge percentage swings.