[SPWR] update

In the backlink I provided the model below.




While the 4th wave bounce was higher than modeled, we determined that that aspect of the model was invalidated by the herd very quickly.  But the model eventually finished wave 4 and then ended down at the price target recently anyhow.  Rocks in the river can create turbulence and temporary distortion but they are not big enough to actually change the course.



Zooming out a bit we see that the pullback was to almost exactly the 61.8 fib and that the bottom was Aug 24th which is right when all the other commodity plays were bottoming causing me to make my 2011 commodities bottoming call.  Note that, depending on how the herd chooses to interpret it,  the recent down wave could either appear to have C shorter than A (which is not supposed to happen) or C same length or longer than A.  It depends on how you count A because the C wave is unambiguous.

If you count A all the way to the tip then the length will be that of the red bar and thus C would be shorter.  In that case, we will probably end up with a falling wedge here per the red path.  The you would end up with a vee bottom into 2 or B in the $12 range.  However, this is not my primary count (even though I mistakenly used red for it below)  Blue is currently primary.

In other words I count Sept and not Dec as the bottom of A as it might appear from the zoom level below. I could be wrong about that but the odds of being wrong decline exponentially if the blue path  moves above the 38.2 fib by very much at all.  But if we get vee style resistance there, all commodities might have one more final washout into 1H 2016.  This bit of uncertainty is why I work the near term wave count and don't fall in love with any long term count.  They are good for bragging rights but the lower risk money is made trading the near term turns.