[S+P500] update

Backlink.  Model from that link is below.



So we did get the expect bounce but it is not yet confirmed that blue 4 as marked below is not A of blue 4 with the recent drop of 400+ points being B of 4.  In the blue short term bullish case I would expect a small gap at the open to kick the herd moving forward and in that case I'm sure my tight stops on UVXY will trigger as I would want them to.  In the red case, the markets would be selling off into 3 of 5 and 3rd waves don't dally about. 





Even though the futures have usually asserted themselves by now one way or the other, the DJIA futures are essentially flat at +6.   I would expect more in the blue case because this should be a smal 3rd of 3rd and thus a gap should be expected.

On the other hand, if the markets are going to be down big time the next day, when are the futures ever flat by midnight?  Never.  So the buyers and sellers are really having a tug of war on the futures IMO.

If the market decides to go up then I will just stop out quickly, and go re-position myself at the next expected peak.

A couple things make me think it could go blue.  First, wave 4 didn't just fill the gap, it blew past.  See the red arrow.  Second, the chart positioned itself just on top of the 50 fib like a man pulling himself out of a turbulent river onto a rock after barely escaping with his life.  It's subtle but not that common.  If this is going to break down it will have to begin to do so by 10am or the odds quickly begin to support the blue path.