EWI vs Avi on gold

Top recap for new readers, probably the most famous two Elliotticians on gold are Avi Gilburt and EWI.  Both have had some great calls.  Avi saw the top coming in 2011 when others thought hyperinflation of the dollar was imminent.   EWI is the largest independent market analyst in the world according to their web site.  Bob Prechter is CEO of EWI and he is clearly the one who resurrected the work of R.N. Elliott over the past couple decades.  He and Frost wrote the definitive book on the matter.

EWI thinks that markets of all kinds are going to wipe out because of deflation.  The count the waves but they also look at other things like margin debt, credit stress indicators, and other mood change indicators which likely indicate the herd is going risk off.  In the case of gold, EWI thinks that the NOV 2014 bottom was just an A wave down and that everything since then has been part of a correction that will eventually lead to a B wave as shown before collapsing down to perhaps $700.  Avi has a much more bullish view and currently I am in Avi's camp.  However, I cannot easily dismiss EWI's expanded flat count which is shown below.  I hope that the big 3 3 5 in pink helps you to see their count.  Expanded flats are 3-3-5 counts.  So the 3-3 part is done and so is 1 of 5.  2 of 5 is likely almost complete.  The 5th wave of an expanded flat tends to play out quite rapidly.

Fortunately, both of them think that the next major move is up.  Miners which have been a bit   muted during the the first wave up off of gold's recent bottom but trust me, if gold makes a higher high or even threatens to not break down from here, miners are going to play catch up big time.  A few hundred bucks up for gold from here, especially if it climbs a wall of worry (grinds higher) can mean several hundreds of percent for miners even if it is only the B wave prelude to metalgeddon as Prechter believes.

Long term views and models are a fine thing but that is like driving in golf.  Driving is for show, putting is where you make the dough.  One cannot intelligently say "I believe that gold will eventually go lower and thus there is no opportunity on the long side until it's all washed out".  The better way to think is, jump on for 5 waves up and then jump off and see if the subsequent action supports Avi or EWI.  Hundreds of percent are at stake for many of the juniors which are now priced at BK levels.

Buy something golden.